EC downgrades 2026 growth forecast for Serbia to 2.8%, projects 3.9% growth in 2027

BRUSSELS - In its Spring 2026 European Economic Forecast, the European Commission has downgraded its projection of Serbia's GDP growth this year to 2.8 pct, but said growth would rebound to 3.9 pct in 2027 thanks to major EXPO 2027-related investments and rising wages and pensions.

In the Autumn 2025 forecast, the EC projected 3.3 pct growth for Serbia in 2026.

"Serbia’s economic growth slowed markedly to 2 pct in 2025, due to domestic and external factors. It is projected to rebound to 2.8 pct in 2026 and 3.9 pct in 2027 as domestic demand benefits from large-scale public investments related to the specialised EXPO27 and from rising wages and pensions," says the latest forecast, released on Thursday.

"These factors are expected to add to the current account deficit and inflationary pressures. The fiscal deficit is set to temporarily rise to 3.2 pct in 2026, as the government has cut fuel excises in response to the Middle East conflict," the EC said, adding that Serbia's public debt was projected to rise slightly to 45 pct of GDP by 2027.