2026 GDP growth projection hinges on resolution of NIS issue - economist

BELGRADE - The approx. 3 pct GDP growth projection for Serbia for 2026 depends on the way several major risks - above all, the issue of the oil company NIS - will be tackled, says Sasa Randjelovic, executive editor of the Kvartalni monitor economic bulletin.

NIS is under US sanctions due to its Russian majority ownership.

"The planned 3 pct economic growth in 2026 is based on the assumption that agriculture will recover and that the problem with NIS will be resolved soon," Randjelovic said on Thursday at a presentation of the 82nd issue of the bulletin, a publication of the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade and the Foundation for Development of Economic Science.

In case the NIS problem is not resolved soon and the energy crisis escalates, macroeconomic projections for 2026 would be revised downwards as the issue would have a negative impact on economic stability, inflation, the unemployment rate and the fiscal deficit, he noted.

"The problem with NIS is the most important one, but there are also other risks - the introduction of trade restrictions by EU member states on Serbian steel exports, the start of implementation of environmental tariffs on some products, as well as the announced restrictions on some manufacturers' tyre exports to the US market," Randjelovic said.

Any disruptions could have a negative impact on the budget because the government could be forced to react by stabilising the market, increasing fuel imports or cutting excise taxes, he added.