Vlahovic: I do not expect recession in Serbia, 1.5-2 pct growth realistic

BELGRADE  - Barring any unforeseen developments, the Serbian economy will not be hit by recession this year and 1.5-2 pct growth can realistically be expected instead, says Association of Serbian Economists President Aleksandar Vlahovic.

In an interview for Politika, Vlahovic said such a growth rate would be lower than that of the global economy and slightly higher than the anticipated eurozone growth.

For the expectations to materialise, the level of investments must not be below 22 pct of GDP, which means that the Serbian government should not skimp on productive capital investments, Vlahovic noted.

It would be good to keep government investments at the 2021 and 2022 levels - at 7 pct of GDP - while the level of foreign investments must remain approximately the same, at 7 pct.

"Let's hope the missing portion of investments will be ensured through private investments, which have been stagnant year by year in the overall investment portfolio," Vlahovic noted.

He also said fears that foreign investors might leave Serbia if Belgrade rejected an EU plan for Kosovo-Metohija were justified.

"Today, EU countries account for two thirds of Serbia's external trade and when you add our region to that, the percentage is 80 pct. The EU has a similar share in the structure of foreign investments. In other words, any advocacy of a different political and economic course for Serbia could lead to unforeseeable negative consequences for our country and our population," he noted.

Speaking about this year's Kopaonik Business Forum, scheduled for March 5-8, Vlahovic said its theme would be Pursuing A Resilient Economy in Uncertain Times.

Dubbed the "Serbian Davos", the Kopaonik Business Forum is organised by the Serbian Association of Economists.