Serbian GDP growth projected to accelerate to 4.2 pct in 2026 - MinFin

BELGRADE - Due to weaker economic performance in Q1 2025 and an anticipated negative impact of global factors, the projection of Serbia's GDP growth for 2025 has been revised from 4.2 pct to 3.0 pct, with growth still projected to accelerate to 4.2 pct in 2026, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.

In instructions for drafting the 2026 budget bill, the ministry said the accelerated growth would be due to the economy adapting to new geopolitical circumstances along with a gradual vanishing of negative economic effects caused by domestic factors, as well as due to expedited implementation of infrastructure projects as part of the Leap into the Future - Serbia 2027 programme.

The growth will continue to be determined by domestic demand, which will contribute 5.3 pp, while a recovery of consumer confidence, along with an increase in the population's real disposable income - mostly due to higher wages and pensions - will lead to accelerated growth of private consumption by a projected 3.9 pct.

Government spending, projected to rise by 3.3 pct, is also expected to slightly contribute to GDP growth in 2026, the ministry said.